Hobby Heat Check: What’s Moving Ahead of The National

Welcome back to Hobby Heat Check—your Monday rundown of what’s moving in the baseball card market, where on-field performance, headlines, and economics intersect.

Last week brought major hits out of 2025 Topps Chrome, some iconic auction results, and rising momentum heading into The National—the most influential card show of the year. This is where pricing floors get set, collector narratives form, and the entire hobby takes a moment to reset its compass.

The National Is Almost Here

It’s that time of year—Chicago is about to take center stage at the Donald E. Stephens Convention Center for the 2025 National Sports Collectors Convention, running July 30 through August 3. While newer entrants like Fanatics Fest are making noise, The National remains the original must-attend event for collectors, dealers, auction houses, and brands. It’s part trade show, part marketplace, part cultural pulse-check—and still, probably, the gold standard of live hobby events.

Expect:

• 500,000+ sq ft. of trading, displays, exclusive drops, and live grading
• Dealer showcases featuring the hobby’s most iconic cards
• TRISTAR’s autograph pavilion with Hall of Famers and celebrities
• Sneak Peek access, Trade Nights, VIP lounges, and Fanatics activations

Event Details

• Date: Wednesday, July 30 – Sunday, August 3
• Location: Donald E. Stephens Convention Center – Rosemont, IL
• Website: nsccshow.com

Ticket Pricing

• General Admission (Daily): $30
• 5-Day Early Entry: $149.99
• Basic VIP Package: $199.99
• All-Access VIP Package: $329.99
• Kids 12 & under: FREE

Events to Watch

• Wednesday Sneak Peek (4–8pm)
• Nightly Trade Nights (Thurs–Sat, 6–11pm)
• VIP Lounge & Pack Breaks
• Exclusive Fanatics Drops
• Dealer Showcases + Pop-Up Grading (PSA, SGC)

If you can’t attend, follow along at @businessofball for real-time highlights, interviews, and data-backed reactions from the show floor.

Market Recap: July 21–27

Card Ladder Index Movement

Market Movers of the Week

• Nick Kurtz – Historic 4-HR game (first rookie in MLB history to accomplish the feat) makes him a serious AL Rookie of the Year contender.
• Jacob Misiorowski – Viral moment pulling his own Bowman 1st #/25 in-shop led to his 1/1 Superfractor auto selling for $52,800 on Fanatics Premier.
• Stan Musial (1948 Bowman PSA 9) – Set a new all-time high of $102,000 on July 24 (up 112.5% from its last sale at $48,000 in Feb 2024).

Nick Kurtz: AL ROY Watch

Just a month ago, Jacob Wilson appeared to have a firm grip on the American League Rookie of the Year race. But Nick Kurtz dramatically shifted the narrative with a historic performance on July 25:

• 6-for-6, 4 home runs, 8 RBIs, 19 total bases—tying Shawn Green’s all-time mark.
• First rookie in history to hit four home runs in a single game.
• Topps released a 1/1 autograph Topps Now insert immediately after the game—it sold out instantly, with secondary market comps emerging within hours.

This type of performance isn’t just impressive—it moves markets. If his production holds, Kurtz’s cards could become one of the most volatile and valuable rookie bets in the second half of 2025.

Topps Chrome Heat

Topps Chrome officially released last Wednesday—and within hours, their Instagram account showcased several grail-level pulls:

• Shohei Ohtani 1/1 Gold Logoman
• Judge–Ohtani Dual Logoman 1/1
• Dylan Crews 1/1 Superfractor
• Jacob Wilson 1/1 Auto
• Paul Skenes Gold Logoman
• Chris Sale Cy Young Gold Logoman

One storyline emerging from the community: many of the biggest hits were pulled within the first week of release. Whether coincidental or strategically frontloaded for marketing, the effect is clear—major cards are already in circulation, and the short-term secondary market is moving fast.

Notably, Orel Hershiser, a hobby investor and iconic World Series MVP, put a public bounty on his own Topps Chrome 1/1 Superfractor—an organic storyline that energized collectors and brought hobby attention to a broader demographic.

The next day, Jacob Misiorowski made headlines of his own by pulling his #/25 Bowman in a local shop and then proceeded to sign it “hit in shop”— adding energy to an already heated week.

Final Thoughts

The weeks leading into and around The National often serve as a barometer for market sentiment and collector behavior. While the hobby remains narrative-driven, what we’re seeing now is a convergence of performance-based spikes, collector storytelling, and well-timed product releases. In short: the card market is operating more like an emerging asset class—leveraging attention cycles, economic signals, and social capital in real time.

Whether you’re attending the National or watching from afar, this is the week where value meets visibility. Eyes are on the floor—and the auction blocks.