Hobby Heat Check: Judge, Shohei, Rafaela & Vintage Icons Lead Market Trends

Welcome to the Hobby Heat Check, your weekly market pulse report for baseball cards—where performance on the field (and the media/off the field)  meets price action in the marketplace.

Each Monday, we break down the biggest risers, movers, and signals from the sports card market, tying real-world player headlines to auction house outcomes, card index shifts, and collector sentiment. 

If you know me, and my love for CNBC…think of this as a CNBC roundup of the hobby—a weekly earnings call for modern and vintage cardboard.

This Week’s Market Pulse

Thanks to Card Ladder’s index tracking, we saw steady but optimistic momentum across the baseball collectibles landscape last week. 

Market-Movers (Provided by Card Ladder)

Top Volume in Last 24 Hours:

• Aaron Judge: $41.4K
• Mickey Mantle: $38.4K
• Babe Ruth: $22.7K

Judge continues to lead all modern players in market turnover, while Mantle and Ruth anchor vintage market cap with unmatched liquidity and legacy. 

This was really eye-opening to see how far off the total market cap is for vintage cards rather than modern. Modern cards get a ton of headlines, but the number proves vintage is where the real money is.

Biggest (modern) 1-Month Gainers (% Growth):

• Ceddanne Rafaela (Red Sox): +150.05%
• Spencer Jones (Yankees): +131.29%

These three represent the modern prospect spike fueled by:

• On-field breakout performances and social media/headlines
• Trade rumors
• Limited card volume in circulation (1-2 verified cards each)

Shohei Market:

• 1 month trend: 9.24%
• 3-month trend: 21.28%
• 6-month trend: 27.22%

Why These Moves Are Happening

Aaron Judge – He’s stabilizing as a certified legend, with a continued power surge and another MVP in his sights. He continues to set records, excite collectors and investors, and is solidifying himself as one of the greatest to play the game.

Ceddanne Rafaela – He’s now hitting .327 over his last 15 games, with power/speed flashes. Collectors are buying his Bowman Chrome autos in anticipation of a full-time MLB role for a contending team. The Red Sox continue to win games and could find themselves in the playoff mix, where Rafaela could continue to break out and become Boston’s next young superstar.

Spencer Jones – He’s surging into Yankees trade talks (possibly for Eugenio Suárez) and is coming off a strong month at AA. The guy hits moonshots and is enormous, so fans are loving the idea of him in the lineup with Judge — but he could be the centerpiece of a trade at the deadline.

Shohei Ohtani – I’d be a pretty ignorant analyst if I did not include Shohei Ohtani’s trendline. It’s almost one of those things you don’t even want to talk about, because it just keeps going up — and that’s not really news anymore. And eventually it has to come back down, right? Maybe not. He just keeps doing silly things like throwing 100 MPH and pacing for another historic home run and stolen base combo season. Shohei equals up and to the right.

Vintage Icons (Mantle, Ruth) – No news is good news. Mantle’s total market cap is still north of $807M, far beyond any modern player, reinforcing his blue-chip status. Supply and demand still rule the game, and the Mick and Babe are always collector and investor favorites.

About Card Ladder: The Data Behind the Heat Check

Card Ladder is the most trusted pricing and analytics engine in the hobby. Their tools help collectors, investors, and institutions track:

• Verified sales from 15+ platforms (eBay, Goldin, Fanatics Collect, etc.)
• Player Indexes (track all verified cards of an athlete)
• CL50 Index (their “elite asset” basket of 50 hand-picked cards)
• Real-Time Charts & Volume Reports (e.g., 24H sales, growth trends, market cap)

In 2021, Card Ladder was acquired by Collectors Universe, the parent company of PSA, enabling an even deeper integration of grading + pricing. With eBay and PSA integrations, Card Ladder provides a Bloomberg Terminal–style lens into the world of collectibles.

We’ll be using their platform each week to surface key signals for collectors—whether you’re flipping Bowman Chrome, tracking GOAT memorabilia, or building long-term value.

📎 Sources:

• Card Ladder 50 Index
• Collectors Universe Acquisition Announcement
• Card Ladder FAQs

Trend Watch: Themes from the Week

• Stability in Vintage: Icons like Mantle/Ruth are always steady and still draw daily volume
• Modern Spec is Heating Up: Rafaela, Jones, and Shohei show that modern still has legs if you understand the headlines.
• Performance = Price: Strong stat lines and trade buzz remain the #1 catalyst for movement.